Will the New England Patriots make the point spread against the Houston Texans in week 14?

For this week’s Offside article I think we have picked one of the best games we could possibly have chosen. It’s almost like the schedule was set up leading to this Monday Night Matchup in week 14 of the regular season.

This game will be exciting for a number of reasons. Both New England and Houston have comfortable leads in their division and they both should end up in the playoff round. In fact Houston has already clinched a wild card spot and the Patriots are certainly looking like they will as well.

Houston’s record is currently 11 wins and 1 loss. The only loss they did suffer was in week 6 against the Green Bay Packers. I honestly think their record is a bit of an exaggeration. Don’t misunderstand what I am trying to say though. Yes they are a good football team, but there were a number of wins this year by the Texans that they really should not have been able to pull off.

They just have had this uncanny ability to make the right play at the right time, and get a turnover, or their opponent would make a bad judgment or mistake and get a penalty that would set them back and have a drive fall apart. This happened over and over throughout the year and they won 11 out of the 12 games they played.

This game really is about who has more points on the scoreboard when the time runs out so the only explanation is that they made the plays that won the games and what a good football team is supposed to do.

But to get to that spot where the Texans have achieved, they have gotten pretty banged up over the course of the season. In fact they have lost a key player in almost every single game this year with injuries, luckily for them some fairly minor, but they have been injury ridden none the less. But some how they have always managed to shuffle players around a little and manage to cover the positions and still make the plays, but I am starting to wonder if this is starting to catch up with them a little.

As an example, last week against the Titans had a foot injury and had to come out and Garrett Graham, a tight end had to come out for a head injury. They started the game short corner back Johnathan Joseph, hurt in week 11 as well as 2 key line backers Brooks Reed and Bradie James hurt in weeks 11 and 12 respectively.

At the time I was researching this article I could not answers as to the status of the above players, but you can understand that a team can only withstand so many injuries before the ability to continue to play at the level they started the year for so long.

I think that the time has come in the season that the Texans will feel the pain from their injuries, and will see their second loss of the year.

So are you saying the New England Patriots will make the spread?

Yes I am. In fact I think that the New England Patriots will beat the spread comfortably this week. Let’s take a quick look at why.

The injuries that Houston has suffered are a factor, many of which were to their defensive line. The only loss they did have this year was against the Packers and in that game Aaron Rodgers threw for over 300 yards and I see no reason why veteran Patriot quarterback Tom Brady shouldn’t have a good game Monday night and throw for 250 to 300 yards or more also.

His reception rate is at just under 65% and he will have plenty of talented receivers to choose from on the field on Monday night. In fact, the games that the Texans have had the most trouble with throughout the year were against teams that had good pass protection, and very mobile, very accurate quarterbacks.

Tom Brady is that kind of quarterback, and the New England Patriots are that kind of football team. I think his offensive line will be there and give him the time he needs to make the plays. And throw in a bit of mixture with some running plays with 1000 yard rusher Stevan Ridley or maybe hand it off to Shane Vereen or Danny Woodhead and the Texans will suddenly be wondering what happened.

I look for Tom Brady to have a good game. He is a well seasoned and intelligent veteran, and he knows how important this game is and I think he is prepared, and I think he will convert it into a win.

I am glad I don’t have to set the line on this game. My emotions tell me one thing and the numbers say something different. But this is football, and it’s not all about the numbers, except the ones on the scoreboard. I am going to pick the Patriots by 5 points.

Now be warned, my pick does not match up with what the sports betting books are picking. At 8:30 pm on Wednesday evening, both William Hill and Bet Online had the Patriots to win by 3.5 points. I just think that is a little too conservative and think they deserve a bit more of an edge than that and will to 5 points.

Some of our readers have mentioned that they do not agree with some of my picks. That is understandable. I would like to encourage you to read the opposing view of this week’s game over at OddsOnBetting. Monday Night Football Week 14: Why the Houston Texans will Cover Against the New England Patriots.

To see the latest odds on these weeks’ games, just see the football betting odds on the left navigation of the site. Then just click on matchups and it will show you the line on the upcoming games. To join a sportsbook and place a bet right now visit Bet Online.